In George Bush's gorgeously written inauguration speech about "a single nation bound by ideals", it was not at all clear that the very next business day, his first executive order would be to block US foreign aid tied to abortion. It was not at all clear that he was going to issue an inflammatory statement, that same day, that "the promises of our Declaration of Independence are not just for the strong, the independent or the healthy. They are for everyone, including unborn children"; a statement that went on to say: "Every person, at every stage and season of life, is created equal in God's image." His first day in office also happened to be the 28th anniversary of Roe v Wade, the historic Supreme Court judgment that enshrined women's right to abortion. By the end of that day, his rhetoric of healing and unity and bipartisanship had melted away.

But why should this come as a surprise? Many people expected the younger George Bush to be not pro-choice - he is a republican, after all - but somewhat laissez-faire on the issue of abortion. And Bush himself has been spectacularly cagey about reproductive rights. During his campaign, he managed to appease the right wing without completely alienating moderates, emphasising his desire to decrease the number of abortions without directly attacking Roe v Wade. He has been deliberately obscure. (Here is where his lack of verbal skill may serve him well. When he doesn't articulate a definite position on a particular subject, it does not raise any alarms.)

We think of Bush as being unsophisticated about expressing himself. Perhaps he is more sophisticated than anyone has given him credit for. Somehow, by a strange combination of his blundering circumlocutions and his artfully written speeches, he has managed, on the subject of abortion, to give everyone the message they wanted to hear.

And then, to confuse matters more, the day before the inauguration, Laura Bush said on NBC news and the Today show that she did not believe Roe v Wave should be reversed. She had hinted at her leanings in this direction during the campaign but never came right out and said it. Though much of the news media treated this as a spontaneous, independent outburst on the part of the next first lady, this opinion cannot have slipped out. It must have been part of a deliberate strategy. The president elect's wife was being used to soften him. To make the many supporters of Roe v Wade feel comfortable. To reassure them that there is a woman on their side in the White House. Never mind that she will be too busy organising her bookshelves to worry about women's rights.

One of the many failures of the Gore campaign - hardly worth dwelling on now - is that the vice-president did not force Bush to make clear his position on abortion. He did not force Bush to say something really chilling, something that would have made it more difficult for women voters to punch their chads. He did not, in any of the debates, or in any other way, corner Bush on this issue which is so important to so many Americans, and which clearly would have given him the advantage.

One of the reasons Bush got elected (in so far as he did get elected) is that the people in America take Roe v Wade so absolutely for granted. Up until only a few days ago, it seemed impossible that, in our lifetime, a woman's right to a safe, legal abortion could vanish; it seemed alarmist, even slightly hysterical, to think that we could go back to the days when women died after back alley abortions. Even many prominent republican women are pro-choice, such as Christie Todd Whitman and Barbara Bush. The country as a whole is behind a woman's right to choose. But the country was also behind Al Gore and that did not stop the Supreme Court.

There is no ambiguity whatsoever on where Bush's nominee for attorney general, John Ashcroft, stands on abortion. He sponsored a human life amendment to the constitution that would outlaw abortion even in cases of rape and incest. And as senator, he voted for the child custody protection act that would have made it a crime for family members to help teenagers cross state lines to have an abortion.

Women are uncomfortable with Ashcroft. So uncomfortable that his 54-year-old wife, Janet Ashcroft, until recently a law professor at Howard University, felt called upon to reveal that she had been attacked by a rapist years before and that her husband's response to her situation "was exactly the way any woman would want him to respond". His behaviour was "perfect". But that perfection has not reassured. In his long, painful confirmation hearing, Ashcroft declared his intention to uphold the law of the land, including Roe v Wade, but that will not stop him chipping away at it with judicial appointments.

And where is the pro-choice movement? During the past decade, the whole issue has become more complicated. As women have begun to take their reproductive rights for granted, the complexities of abortion have risen to the surface. Debates and ruminations have sprung up where previously there were only posterboard slogans. No more wire hangers. Life begins at birth. When this president came into office, the truisms of the pro-choice movement were in the midst of being honestly examined and knocked around.

The black and whiteness the movement had in its inception has become more subtle and sophisticated. We have begun to examine our own assumptions - something feminists are not prone to do. Even fairly middle of the road, party line feminists, such as Naomi Wolf, have confessed doubts about the ethical difficulties of the subject: is a foetus a life? Is abortion a simple medical procedure like removing an appendix?

Changes in medical technology have also altered the terrain of debate. When one sees a sonogram pasted to a refrigerator, or hears of the survival of a very, very premature baby, one gets a clear sense of life before birth. After 28 years of legal protection, the complexities of the issue have begun to be explored; but now suddenly the moral ambiguities may become luxuries we can no longer afford. We may have to go back. No more wire hangers.